- X says 'alert' to manipulation efforts after pro-Russia bots report
- US, European markets rise before Boeing unveils sweeping job cuts
- Small Quebec company dominates one part of NHL hockey: jerseys
- Comoros shock Tunisia, Salah, Mbeumo strike in AFCON qualifiers
- Boeing to cut 10% of workforce as it sees big Q3 loss
- Germany win in Nations League as 10-man Dutch rescue point
- Undav brace sends Germany to victory against Bosnia
- Israel says fired at 'threat' near UN position in Lebanon
- Want to film in Paris? No sexism allowed
- Ecuador's last mountain iceman dies at 80
- Milton leaves at least 16 dead, millions without power in Florida
- Senegal set to announce breakaway development agenda: PM
- UN says 2 peacekeepers wounded in south Lebanon explosions
- Injury-hit Australia thrash 'embarrassing' Pakistan at Women's T20 World Cup
- Internal TikTok documents show prioritization of traffic over well-being
- Israel says fired at 'immediate threat' near UN position in Lebanon
- New US coach Pochettino hails Pulisic but worries over workload
- Brazil orders closure of 2,000 betting sites
- UK govt urged to raise pro-democracy tycoon's case with China
- Sculptor Lalanne's animal creations sell for $59 mn
- From Tesla to Trump: Behind Musk's giant leap into politics
- US, European markets rise as investors weigh rates, earnings
- In Colombia, children trade plastic waste for school supplies
- Supercharged hurricanes trigger 'perfect storm' for disinformation
- JPMorgan Chase profits top estimates, bank sees 'resilient' US economy
- Djokovic proves staying power as he progresses to Shanghai semi-finals
- Sheffield Utd boss Wilder 'numb' after Baldock death
- Little progress at key meet ahead of COP29 climate summit
- Fans immerse themselves in Marina Abramovic's first China exhibition
- Israel says conducting review after UN peacekeepers wounded in Lebanon
- 'Party atmosphere': Skygazers treated to another aurora show
- Djokovic 'overwhelmed' after 'greatest rival' Nadal's retirement
- Zelensky in Berlin says hopes war with Russia will end next year
- Kyrgyzstan opens rare probe into glacier destruction
- European Mediterranean states discuss Middle East, migration
- Djokovic proves staying power as progresses to Shanghai semi-finals
- Hurricane Milton leaves at least 16 dead as Florida cleans up
- Britain face 'ultimate challenge' in America's Cup duel with New Zealand
- Lebanon calls for 'immediate' ceasefire in Israel-Hezbollah war
- Nihon Hidankyo: Japan's A-bomb survivors awarded Nobel
- Thunberg leads pro-Palestinian, climate protest in Milan
- Boat captain rescued clinging to cooler in Gulf of Mexico after storm Milton
- Tears, warnings after Japan atomic survivors group win Nobel
- 'Unspeakable horror': the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki
- Stock markets diverge before China weekend briefing
- Christian villagers 'trapped' in south Lebanon crossfire
- Sabalenka sets up Gauff showdown in Wuhan semis
- EU questions shopping app Temu over illegal products risk
- Kim Sei-young holds lead with late birdies at LPGA Shanghai
- Toulouse welcome Dupont 'boost' as Olympic star returns to Top 14
Russia struggles to turn Black Sea rule into amphibious attack
Russia may rule the Black Sea but any amphibious assault on the Ukrainian coast seems risky while Kyiv's missiles threaten to destroy Russian ships if they get too close, experts say.
According to British intelligence sources, Russia operates around 20 warships in the Black Sea, where the balance of power is now static since Turkey blocks any access by vessels belonging to a warring party.
"It's their 'Mare Nostrum'," said Captain Eric Lavault, a spokesman for the French navy, a reference to the Latin term meaning "Our Sea" used in ancient Rome to describe the Mediterranean.
The fact that all the other Black Sea countries either already belong to NATO or hope to join the Western alliance has not cowed Russia's claim to supremacy.
On paper, the recent capture of the coastal Ukrainian city of Mariupol and Russian control of the entire Sea of Azov coastline should underline Russian dominance and allow Moscow's troops to establish a direct logistics link between its fighters in the Donbas region and the eastern port of Novorossiysk, Lavault said.
But since the surprise sinking last month of the Russian warship Moskva all bets are off.
The disappearance of the Russian flagship has created great uncertainty for the attackers along what is still a Ukrainian-controlled coastline between Odessa and Romania.
This is not thanks to Kyiv's navy, which has been destroyed, but to land-based missiles like the Neptune -- believed to have delivered the fatal blow to the Moskva -- and, soon, the Harpoon that Britain is to deliver to Ukraine.
The impact of the Moskva's sinking on Russian planning may well prevent any attempt by the Russian navy to land near Odessa with the aim of surrounding the Ukrainian heartland and linking up Russian forces with separatists in the Moldavian Transnistria region.
"That zone presents a threat that the Russians must take into account," said defence expert Igor Delanoe at the French-Russian Monitor, a political analysis body based in Moscow.
Any such landing is currently "out of reach" for the Russians, said Delanoe.
Russian progress in the Donbas region could open up new options, he said, "but they will have to neutralise the coastal defences," he cautioned.
- 'Not Russia's any more' -
Russian forces have had great trouble locating and destroying Ukrainian surface-to-air missiles because of their mobility, said Michael Petersen, director of the Russia Maritime Studies Institute and an associate professor at the US Naval War College.
"I suspect that would also be the case for any mobile coastal defense cruise missile system that Ukraine may have," he said, adding that the exact number of Neptune missiles -- which have a range of some 300 kilometres (200 miles) -- available to Ukrainian forces was unknown.
Russia's failure to establish air superiority, and its apparent inability to precision-target missiles, are not helping its efforts to knock out Ukraine's coastal defences, added French navy spokesman Lavault.
He said this had allowed the defenders to create "a maritime cordon sanitaire" and threaten Russian southern supply lines between Kherson and Nikolayev.
In addition, Ukraine has deployed mines, and is expected to take delivery of naval surface drones promised by the US, although it is not certain that they will be armed.
"More likely, if Ukraine is provided with unmanned systems, they would be used to provide surveillance and reconnaissance for weapon systems," Petersen said.
British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace meanwhile went as far as contesting Russia's centuries-old supremacy in the Black Sea altogether.
"The Russians can't control the Black Sea," he told Sky News. "It's not theirs anymore."
Whatever the outcome of the Ukraine war, Russia will not give up its Black Sea role quietly, experts agreed.
But as other Black Sea countries, notably Romania and Turkey, deploy their own coastal missile systems based on Ukraine's example, Moscow's role will become harder to maintain.
"Certainly Russia will be less secure in the Black Sea than they were before the war," said Petersen.
P.Stevenson--AMWN