- Far from eye, Hurricane Milton's deadly tornados rampaged Florida
- At least 10 dead in Florida after Hurricane Milton spawns tornadoes
- Argentina held, Bolivia stun Colombia in 2026 qualifiers
- Socceroos have 'nothing to fear' from Japan
- Sean 'Diddy' Combs sex trafficking trial set for May 2025
- Bolivia stun Colombia in World Cup qualifiers
- Internet Archive reels from 'catastrophic' cyberattack, data breach
- Greece earn late win against England in Nations League, Italy-Belgium stalemate
- Trump biopic 'The Apprentice' hits US theaters weeks before election
- Pavlidis dedicates 'special' Greece win over England to tragic Baldock
- Wall Street stocks retreat from records on US inflation data
- 'Like a quake': Beirut shaken after deadliest strikes on centre
- Fallen giants Ghana in AFCON trouble after Sudan draw
- Asian leaders meet in Laos with US, Russia on world turmoil
- England gamble backfires as Pavlidis fires emotional Greece to victory
- Obama stumps for Harris, Trump talks US protectionism
- New-look France ease past Israel in Nations League
- Belgium fight back to draw with 10-man Italy in Nations League
- 'Get a life': Hurricane whips up US election storm
- Japan stay perfect in World Cup qualifying
- Relief as Lebanon evacuees dock in Turkey
- Lebanon says 22 dead in Israeli strikes on central Beirut
- NBA boss Silver sees games back in China 'at some point'
- Israel strikes central Beirut, killing 22
- Table tennis and Netflix push Ukraine teen into French Open contention
- Civilians flee Gaza's Jabalia in tightening Israeli siege
- Israel strikes central Beirut, killing 18
- At least 10 dead in Florida from tornadoes caused by Hurricane Milton
- Warhol's rare 'Queen' collection opens at Dutch museum
- Three-time NBA champion Green retires
- MLB Twins up for sale after 40 years
- S.Sudan floods affect 893,000, over 241,000 displaced: UN
- Solar storm could impact US hurricane recovery efforts: agency
- Windies sweat on injury to 'crucial' Taylor at World Cup
- Lebanon says 11 dead, 48 injured in Israeli strikes on Beirut
- Panama lashes out at EU over tax haven 'outrage'
- Erdogan says Gaza 'shame of humanity', calls for permanent ceasfire
- TD Bank to pay more than $3 bn to US in money-laundering case
- SAfrica prosecutors drop criminal complaint against president
- 'Good opportunity': Nagelsmann upbeat despite Germany's long injury list
- Hurricane whips up bitter US election battle
- Cameroon bans media talk of president's health amid rumours
- NFL MVP Jackson and rookie phenom Daniels set for showdown
- Chad's capital under threat as floodwaters rise
- Lebanon state media says Israeli strikes hit central Beirut
- No answers on strike on reporters in Lebanon one year on: watchdog
- Ramharack picks four wickets as Windies beat Bangladesh in Women's T20 World Cup
- France's City of Light switches to climate-resilient power cables
- Djokovic hails Nadal 'legacy' as Alcaraz in 'shock' over retirement
- Obama hits campaign trail for Harris
Russian gas stop promises 'sharp recession' for Germany
An immediate end to Russian energy imports would send Germany into "sharp recession" next year, the country's leading economic institutes said in a forecast published Wednesday.
Persistently higher energy prices and geopolitical risks herald the beginning of a new era for Europe's industrial powerhouse, they warned, one which not every company will survive.
"Not all business models that were profitable in Germany in the past will have a future," Stefan Kooths, vice-president of the IfW Kiel institute, said at a Berlin press conference.
The government must keep this in mind when it considers support measures for struggling firms, he added.
Germany, which is highly dependent on Russian gas for its energy needs, has so far resisted calls for a European boycott in response to the war in Ukraine.
Closing the taps in "mid-April" this year would limit growth to 1.9 percent in 2022 and push Germany into a recession in 2023, causing the economy to shrink by 2.2 percent, according to the forecast.
The impact of a boycott would "not be overcome" over the next two years, the institutes (DIW, Ifo, IfW Kiel, IWH and RWI) said in a joint statement.
Europe's largest economy could yet suffer a "set back" at the end of 2023 into 2024, as demand for energy rises in the European winter, before "gradually" returning to growth.
Before Moscow began its war in Ukraine, a third of Germany's oil imports, 45 percent of its coal purchases and 55 percent of gas imports came via pipelines from Russia.
The country has set about weaning itself off Russia energy imports, accelerating investments in renewables and building LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminals on the North Sea coast to import gas from further afield, though they would take years to come online.
Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at the end of March that it would likely take until mid-2024 for Europe's largest economy to wean itself off Russian deliveries.
- Emergency plan -
German officials have already triggered an emergency plan in anticipation of a gas shortage, which could result in gas rationing among households and businesses.
The government has also prepared legislation that would allow it to expropriate gas suppliers "to assure security of supply", according to a draft seen by AFP.
The law would make it difficult to close storage facilities without government approval as well.
Last week, Berlin took temporary control of Russian gas giant Gazprom's German subsidiary, which holds several key pieces of infrastructure, after its parent company unexpectedly withdrew.
European partners, who have already agreed to stop buying coal from Russia, are currently in discussions about further sanctions against Moscow.
While a gas boycott with its serious economic consequences is seen as a last resort, the next target of EU sanctions could well be Russian oil.
- 'Difficult waters' -
Even without a gas boycott, the war in Ukraine is "slowing down" Germany's recovery from the economic shock of the coronavirus pandemic, the institutes said.
The German economy was "navigating difficult waters" as the war and China's zero-Covid policy added to supply chain disruptions that are hampering industry.
The group slashed their forecast for growth in 2022 to 2.7 percent, from their previous estimate of 4.8 percent made in October last year.
At the same time, they raised their forecast for growth in 2023 to 3.1 percent from 1.9 percent, in a scenario where energy deliveries continue.
Inflation, which has hit new highs as the price for energy has soared, would come out at 6.1 percent in 2022, before falling back to 2.8 percent in 2023, the think-tanks said.
Shutting off supplies from Russia would push the price even higher, taking inflation to 7.3 percent in 2022 and keeping it at five percent in 2023.
Y.Nakamura--AMWN