- Philippine military says will acquire US Typhon missile system
- Afghan bread, the humble centrepiece of every meal
- Honda and Nissan expected to begin merger talks
- 'Draconian' Vietnam internet law heightens free speech fears
- Israeli women mobilise against ultra-Orthodox military exemptions
- Asian markets track Wall St rally as US inflation eases rate worries
- Tens of thousands protest in Serbian capital over fatal train station accident
- Trump vows to 'stop transgender lunacy' as a top priority
- Daniels throws five TDs as Commanders down Eagles, Lions and Vikings win
- 'Who's next?': Misinformation and online threats after US CEO slaying
- Only 12 trucks delivered food, water in North Gaza Governorate since October: Oxfam
- Melrose Group Publicly Files Complaint to the Ontario Securities Commission
- Langers edge Tiger and son Charlie in PNC Championship playoff
- Explosive batsman Jacobs gets New Zealand call-up for Sri Lanka series
- Holders PSG edge through on penalties in French Cup
- Slovak PM Fico on surprise visit to Kremlin to talk gas deliveries
- Daniels throw five TDs as Commanders down Eagles
- Atalanta fight back to take top spot in Serie A, Roma hit five
- Mancini admits regrets over leaving Italy for Saudi Arabia
- Run machine Ayub shines as Pakistan sweep South Africa
- Slovak PM Fico on surprise visit to Kremlin
- Gaza rescuers say Israeli strikes kill 35
- 'Incredible' Liverpool must stay focused: Slot
- Maresca 'absolutely happy' as title-chasing Chelsea drop points in Everton draw
- Salah happy wherever career ends after inspiring Liverpool rout
- Three and easy as Dortmund move into Bundesliga top six
- Liverpool hit Spurs for six, Man Utd embarrassed by Bournemouth
- Netanyahu vows to act with 'force, determination' against Yemen's Huthis
- Mbappe back from 'bottom' as Real Madrid down Sevilla
- Ali hat-trick helps champions Ahly crush Belouizdad
- France kept on tenterhooks over new government
- Salah stars as rampant Liverpool hit Spurs for six
- Syria's new leader says all weapons to come under 'state control'
- 'Sonic 3' zips to top of N.America box office
- Rome's Trevi Fountain reopens to limited crowds
- Mbappe strikes as Real Madrid down Sevilla
- 'Nervous' Man Utd humiliated by Bournemouth
- Pope again condemns 'cruelty' of Israeli strikes on Gaza
- Lonely this Christmas: Vendee skippers in low-key celebrations on high seas
- Troubled Man Utd humiliated by Bournemouth
- 2 US pilots shot down over Red Sea in 'friendly fire' incident: military
- Man Utd embarrassed by Bournemouth, Chelsea held at Everton
- France awaits fourth government of the year
- Germany pledges security inquest into Christmas market attack
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- Odermatt stays hot to break Swiss World Cup wins record
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- Germany pledges security inquest after Christmas market attack
Climate migrants could face a world of closing doors
People driven from their homes as global warming redraws the map of habitable zones are unlikely to find refuge in countries more focused on slamming shut their borders than planning for a climate-addled future, according to a top expert on migration.
From fleeing a typhoon to relocating in anticipation of sea level rise, climate migration covers a myriad of situations and raises a host of questions.
But one thing is sure: the number of climate refugees is going to increase in the coming decades, according to a major UN report on climate impacts and vulnerability released on Monday.
"We are on the cusp of a major environmental change that is going to redistribute populations on a planetary scale," Francois Gemenne, a lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, told AFP.
"But clearly -- given the current political climate -- we are not at all ready to confront this kind of question," he said in an interview.
"Rather, there's a tendency to shutter borders and erect walls topped with razor wire."
Which is why the temptation to raise the spectre of mass climate migration in order to spur more aggressive action in curbing carbon pollution is so dangerous, said Gemenne, a professor at Liege University in Belgium.
"Even if it's done with the best of intentions, this risks reinforcing xenophobic attitudes," he said.
But the problem is already here-and-now, even if so-called "climate migrants" have no legal status, nationally or internationally.
- Environment is economy -
"In 2020, some 30 million people were displaced by extreme weather events made worse by climate change -- three times more than the number displaced by violence or conflict," Gemenne said.
Most people forced to abandon their homes due to droughts, storms and floods made worse by global warming are in the global South, and most remain within the borders of their countries.
Many of those who do wind up on the edge of Europe or the southern border of the United States are often labelled "economic migrants", suggesting that they are pulled by opportunity rather than pushed by catastrophe, Gemenne said.
"My salary and yours does not depend on environmental conditions," Gemenne said. "But for a lot of people on this planet who depend on rain-fed agriculture, the economy and the environment are the same thing."
Sea level rise alone could displace hundreds of millions of people by century's end, with low-lying coastal regions expected to be home to more than a billion people by 2050, according to the IPCC report.
Vast expanses of agricultural land, particularly in deltas, are also at risk.
But predictions of how many climate migrants there might be in 30, 50 or 80 years are confounded by unknown variables and choices not yet made.
"It's very complicated and hard to say because we're talking about human behaviour, which can sometimes be irrational", Gemenne said.
"It's not really something that the IPCC can model."
- A 'virtual state'? -
The best projections to date may come from the World Bank, which has calculated up to 216 million people could be internally displaced by mid century, even under an optimistic greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
Although Gemenne said that does not mean this number will definitely be forced from their home.
Impacts can be softened by early warning systems, financial compensation or long-term planning, he added.
Indonesia recently made the extraordinary decision to move its capital to Borneo from Jakarta, on the island of Java, because the megapolis is being overtaken by rising seas and sinking due to depleted aquifers.
Rich countries "under the impression that big infrastructure projects will be enough to protect their populations" would do well to take note, Gemenne said.
The catastrophic flooding that ravaged parts of Germany and Belgium, as well as inundations in New York and cities in China should be a red flag, he warned.
"We need to collectively rethink where we can live, and where we can allow people to live."
For some countries, the forecasts are even more dramatic.
Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and other low-lying island archipelagos risk disappearing entirely, raising fundamental questions about the very definition of a nation state.
If a country disappears physically, can they still have a seat at the UN?
Do their citizens -- living, perhaps, as refugees in another nation -- become stateless?
Can there be such a thing as a "virtual state"?
"Climate change is going to challenge the very foundations of international relations," Gemenne said.
S.Gregor--AMWN